Eight people are backed up to the edge of a cliff, and each flips a coin three times. Heads means a step forward; tails, a step back, or utter failure. By straight probability, half the field falls off the cliff after the first flip. On the second flip, two will advance another step and two will return to the start, likely terrified to flip again knowing that the cliff is behind them once more. On the final flip, probability dictates that one will fall off the cliff, two will end up a step ahead and one will be in quite an enviable position-two full steps ahead of the nearest competitors and three ahead of the start point.
This is an example given in the magazine “Entrepreneur.” The article by Sam Hogg goes on to say, “Probability alone would allow some people to succeed time after time. Being able to distinguish among people with talent and people just filling probability’s quota is not easy. It is arguable that those who have failed bring just as much, if not more, to the table but must work much harder to get another chance. Perhaps that is why many of the greatest entrepreneurs have racked up multiple failures as well.”
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